速览鲍威尔重磅鹰派记者会问答要点

鲍威尔意在强调，首先，美联储官员作出任何降息决策都会感觉当前的经济形势和数据而定，而目前通胀和就业的两大使命之间风险达到均衡，所以是时候开启降息以提振劳动力市场了。

第二，美联储将逐次会议做出决策，不会受到市场对降息预期定价的影响，也不会考虑任何政治因素和议题，而是用「对当时合适的速度或快或慢地采取行动」。

第三，鲍威尔不认为大幅降息说明美国经济衰退临近，也不说明就业市场濒临崩溃的边缘，降息更多是一种预防性质的行动，目的是保持住经济和劳动力市场「稳健」的现状。

第四，他承认非农就业可能下修，但依旧是个值得参考的重要数据点，其他美联储关注的劳动力数据还包括：失业率、就业率、工资增长、职位空缺与失业人数的比值、辞职率等多项指标：

重点是，「问题不在于具体数字的水平几何」，而是在过去几个月情况发生了变化，美国通胀的上行风险确实在下降，就业的下行风险增加，所以现在美联储出手调整政策立场支持就业。

以下为华尔街见闻整理的鲍威尔 9 月 FOMC 大幅降息后记者会问答环节全记录：

问题 1：

Strong third quarter GDP running 3% so what changed to made the committee go 50. Andhow do you respond to the concerns that perhaps it shows the Fed is more concerned about the labor market, and I guess should we expect more 50s in the months ahead? And based on what should we make that call?

第三季度美国 GDP 预计强劲增长 3%，那么是什么变化让美联储决定降息 50 个基点？这是否可能表明美联储更担心劳动力市场，未来也会继续每次降息 50 个基点？我们应该根据什么做出这一判断？

回答 1：

Let me jump in. So since the last meeting, we have had a lot of data come in. We've had the two employment reports July and August. We've also had two inflation reports, including one that came in during blackout. We had the QCW report, which suggests that the payroll report numbers that we're getting may be artificially high and will be revised down. You know that we've also seen that anecdotal data like the Beige Book, so we took all of those, and we went into blackout, and we thought about what to do, and we cleared that this was the right thing for the economy, for the people that we serve, and that's how we made our decision. So that's one question.

自上次会议以来，我们收到了很多数据，有 7 月和 8 月的两份非农就业报告，还有两份通胀报告，其中一份是在美联储官员静默期内发布的。还有 QCW 报告表明我们非农新增就业数可能被人为抬高，将会被下调。我们也看到了像美联储褐皮书这样的轶事数据，所以我们收集了所有这些数据，然后进入公开发言的静默期，我们思考该怎么做，并明确了这对经济、对我们服务的美国人民​​来说是正确的，这就是我们做出决定的方式。

So a couple things, a good place to start is the SEP. But let me start with what I said, which was that we're going to be making decisions, meeting by meeting, based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, the balance of risks. If you look at the SEP, you'll see that it's a process of recalibrating our policy stance, away from where we had a year ago, when inflation was high and unemployment low, to a place that's more appropriate given where we are now and where we expect to be. And that process will take place over time. There's nothing in the SEP that suggests the committee is in a rush to get this done. This this process evolves over time.

（对于未来利率路径的判断），一个好的起点是看经济预测摘要 SEP。首先，我们将根据收到的数据、不断变化的前景和风险平衡，在逐次会议上做出决定。看看 SEP 你会发现，这是一个重新校准我们政策立场的过程，远离一年前通胀高 + 失业率低的立场，转向一个更适合当前情况和我们预期的立场。这个过程将随着时间的推移而发生。SEP 中没有任何内容表明委员会急于完成（降息）这项工作，这个过程是随着时间的推移而发展的。

Of course, that's a projection. That's a baseline projection. We know, as I mentioned in my remarks, that the actual things that we do will depend on the way the economy evolves. We can go quicker, if that's appropriate, we can go slower if that's appropriate. We can pause if that's appropriate. But that's what we're contemplating. Again, I would point you to the SEP as just an assessment of where, what the committee is thinking today, but the individual members, rather, of the committee, are thinking today, assuming that their particular forecasts take, you know, are realized.

当然，这只是一个预测。这是一个基线预测。正如我在发言中提到的，我们实际做的事情将取决于经济的发展方式。如果合适，我们可以加快（降息）速度，如果合适，我们可以放慢速度。如果合适，我们可以暂停。但这就是我们正在考虑的。再次，我想指出，SEP 只是对委员会今天的想法的评估，而且是委员会的各位成员今天的想法，假设他们特定的预测得以实现。

问题 2: